Russia is almost certain to invade Ukraine

It is just a matter of time

“Will Russia invade Ukraine?” has become the biggest guessing game in Washington, but not only. The global markets were hit by a wave of volatility last Friday, as tensions at the Ukrainian borderline grew higher.

Russia invading Ukraine evolved from a geopolitical problem into a time bomb for the financial markets. This is the reason our team decided to look deeper into the problem and provide you with a full analysis.

Now let’s dive into it and explain why we firmly believe Russia will invade Ukraine in just a matter of weeks(or even next week as the National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned on Friday).

The main unknown

For the time being, the only unpredictable element is Vladimir Putin. We can’t accurately predict what he thinks, but we can make educated guesses with high probability percentage based on his way of being.

It is common knowledge that Putin was trained by the KGB to become a spy. We don’t know what they taught in their curriculum, but we could assume that they put great emphasis on how to overthrow governments and not on avoiding a war.

As he rose to power after the fall of the USSR, he proved to be a man of great capabilities and highly intelligent. He knew exactly what to do to become president and took each step according to his plan.

He took out all of his political enemies, so that nobody stood in his way to power. Nowadays, he is still taking care of anybody that tries to oppose him.

Does this man look like someone who plays games and mobilizes almost 100.000 troops near the Ukraine borderline just because he was bored? Everything Putin does is just a step in the bigger picture.

The troops are there for a reason.

The troops in Belarus doing military exercises are there for a reason.

You can’t bully Putin into his corner

Let’s pretend he doesn’t have any plans of invading Ukraine.

He was just having fun with the Western politicians’ nerves. They threaten Russia with economic sanctions if they invade Ukraine.

Putin cannot back off now and give the impression he was scared by the Western sanctions. He would seem weak and afraid.

These two words can’t be used to describe the Russian president. After he got threatened, he must make an aggressive move, otherwise he would look like a coward.

Not his first rodeo

This isn’t the first time Russia made a show of force and tried to occupy other territories.

In 2008, Putin got Georgia and in 2014 he annexed crimean peninsula.Therefore, Putin has a good idea on how to manage these things.

In 2014, Russian forces invaded Ukrainian territory and kicked the Ukrainian forces’ ass. Putin got punished that time also, but he couldn’t care less.

Putin is looking for excuses

Before invading a country, every leader must find an excuse for it. Napoleon did it, Hitler did it… it is like a tradition.

Putin can’t just invade Ukraine because he woke up and chose violence. He is searching for the right excuse and this is a clear sign an invasion is getting planned.

There are rumors that Moscow is planning to fake an attack on Russian rebels fighting in Donetsk region in order to provide Putin with an excuse for his actions.

Also, Putin declaring that he is scared of the prospects of Ukraine joining NATO and then trying to get back Crimea, therefore starting a war between NATO and Russia is just another big excuse.

Come on Putin, you can do better than that. There are good chances he will surprise us with his excuse.

Nobody can stand in his way

This is the perfect time for Russia to make a geopolitical move as western countries face major economic problems while still fighting the pandemic.

Who is gonna oppose Russia?

Macron, who didn’t understand shit after his meeting with Putin and started to boast how he made a major diplomatic breakthrough?

President Biden, who sleeps most of the time and, when he is awake, he posts on Twitter that during his mandate there were the most jobs created, despite the fact that he had nothing to do with this accomplishment. He even said that in case of an attack he won’t send the US military to rescue US citizens from Ukraine. President Biden is just too scared of Putin.

At least, he used the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to tame inflation(total failure), instead of saving it in case of a full scale war. Biden’s mandate is best described by major policy mistakes and boasting with Jerome Powell’s work on achieving full employment.

Conclusion

With solid knowledge on how to plan an invasion and nobody to oppose him, Vladimir Putin won’t backoff from invading Ukraine.

Our experts don’t believe he plans to occupy the entire country: he will either occupy Kiev or he will occupy the Donbas region. The chances for this invasion to evolve into a full scale war are still low for the time being.

Getting punished is not a concern for him. After all, European countries still need Russian natural gas and Putin can punish them in retaliation.

Putin has a strong character and he will act accordingly.